1818 Sports

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By Chris McCarry

Typically I’ll do 4 games plus the Eagles game.  Since the Birds are on a Bye, you just get the other 4 games.

There are four games this weekend that are going to go a long way towards thinning the herd of early season hype.  I’ve looked these over and present to you what are most certainly the most sure-fire, stone-cold-picks in all of football.

New York Jets @ New Orleans Saints (NO by 3)

This is the single sporting event on the planet that has been hyped-up anywhere near as much as Favre’s Monday night fiasco with the Packers.  And for good reason…

I think the Saints might be the best team in football right now.  They did allow 27 points to the Lions in week one (a 45-27 win), but they have thoroughly trounced the Eagles and Bills in the succeeding weeks, two fairly decent teams.  The questions surrounding New Orleans have been about their rushing game and their defense.

Well, they rank 2nd in Rush YPG (170) and 10th in Opponents YPG (245).  And I actually think that yards allowed number is as high as it is because they jump out to a big leads and then opposing offenses have to sling the ball all over the field just to keep up.

As far as the Jets go, I think they are markedly better than last year.  Rex Ryan has instilled an all-new mentality in that locker room and brought the Ryan brand of defense with him from Baltimore.

The Jets rank in the top 10 in all the meaningful team defense categories.  They have held New England, Houston and Tennessee to just 256 YPG so far this season.  Those three teams are under achieving to this point in 2009 but the Pats and Texans were the 5th and 3rd best offenses in ’08.

This game is the first real test that New Orleans’ offense will face and New York’s defense will face.

PICK: New Orleans holds serve at home.  They’ll cover the line as well.

Baltimore Ravens @ New England Patriots (BAL by 1)

New England has been a bit of an enigma so far this year.  Tom Brady at times hasn’t looked like the superman we all make him out to be but overall I don’t think missing last season affected him too much.  He threw for 378 yards in the first game of the season @ Buffalo.

The team looked out of sync against the Jets in week 2.  They were held to just nine points for the first time since 2006 when the Broncos held them to seven in week 3.  This is going to be a tough matchup for New England but that’s why they have Brady and Bellichek.
Keep an eye on New England’s underrated, star-less defense.  They are ranked higher than Baltimore in many statistical categories.

Baltimore is considered the best team in football right now.  And they might be, this game can be a big part of the argument for or against that claim.

They’re the second best offense in the NFL in both Yards Per Game and Points Per Game (Second to New Orleans that is).  Flacco has emerged as more than just a “game-manager,” he’s got he 5th best passer rating in the league (101.4, Drew Brees is 1st).  Joe’s also 4th in league in touchdowns (6, only 2 INT) and 7th in YPG (280).

On top of that, his O-line is keeping him clean, Flacco’s only been sacked 3 times in 3 games.  Only 5 starting quarterbacks are cleaner than that (Brady, Eli, Peyton, Ryan and Leftwich).

And let’s not forget that rushing game.  Willis McGahee is 7th in the league in yards/carry (5.9) and leads the NFL in touchdowns with 5.  Rookie Ray Rice isn’t far behind with 5.1 YPC and a touchdown.  He’s also second on the team with 11 receptions, expect him to pick up his first receiving TD today.

PICK: Baltimore’s defense holds up against Brady and Co. and they pick up a BIG road win.  It’ll be close, but not that close, Baltimore covers the spread.

Dallas Cowboys @ Denver Broncos (EVEN)

I’m not surprised to see the line even for this game.  I don’t think anybody has any idea what to make of these two teams.  Dallas has got a ton of talent and more pressure to succeed than the first black president does.  And Denver…well, they run their Pro-Bowl QB (who honestly, acted like a bit of a 6-year-old) out of town and now their Pro-Bowl WR (who honestly, acted like a bit of a 3-year-old) wants out too.  I feel simultaneous empathy and disdain for both Tony Romo and Josh McDaniels.  They have quite possibly two of the toughest jobs in sports, yet there isn’t a single likeable, confidence-inspiring trait between them.

Somehow, out of nowhere, the Broncos have the best defense in the NFL.  And not by a little, it’s indisputable…except for the fact that they’ve played three of the worst teams in the league (CLE, CIN, OAK).

Oakland and Cleveland are battling it out for last place in total offense while Cinci sits in 24th.

Denver is actually too mediocre offensively to even quote stats.

And that brings me to the Cowboys.  (SPOILER: I’m going to pick the Broncos in this game simply for my hatred of the Cowboys organization).

The ‘Boys are 26th defensively in YPG and 17th in PPG.  This is an intensely talented unit, 26th in the league in opponents’ YPG is much too low.

Dallas’ strength is their running game.  Barber and Jones rushed the Cowboys to 193 YPG through 3 weeks.  The big question mark for today surrounds injuries to the aforementioned backs.  Barber will play today after resting a strained quad and Jones is out with a bad knee.  Tashard Choice could possibly start today if Barber isn’t good to go.

Tony Romo’s performance has been about as exciting as watching someone do your taxes.  He’s been OK at best, rolling into Mile High with an 85.2 QB Rating, 4 TD and 3 INT.  Whoop.

PICK: I’d like to push on this one, but I’m going to pick Denver.  They’re at home and I think the idea shoving a 4-0 record down everyone’s throat will motivate them just enough.

San Diego Chargers @ Pittsburgh Steelers (EVEN)

After two straight road loses, Pittsburgh hosts the Chargers, and tries to avoid their first 3-game losing streak since ’06.

It’s going to be cold and wet in Pittsburgh today, both teams are going to have to run the ball effectively to be successful.  That’s easier said than done on both sidelines.

LaDainian Tomlinson is listed as probable with an ankle injury.  Even if he’s on the field, how much will he contribute?  Confounding that problem is Darren Sproles anemic production so far this year.  The Chargers are the 2nd worst rushing team in the NFL – and that’s when both of their RB’s were healthy.

Another problem with San Diego has been their toughness.  They got pushed around a bit in their first two games, but got more physical against the Dolphins last week.  They’ll need to carry that into Pittsburgh today.

Phillip Rivers is sporting a pretty poor QB rating but he’s completing 67% of his passes and averaging 330 YPG.  Expect San Diego to attack the Steelers Palomalu-less secondary.

Pittsburgh has been a mystery this year.  Coming off a Super Bowl win they have not been able to get anything going on the ground. And their O-Line has struggled to protect Big Ben as well, allowing Roethlisberger to be sacked 7 times already this year.

Willie Parker is doubtful, dropping the rushing load on Rashard Mendnhall, who lost offensive playing time last week due to missed assignments.  He’s only gotten 7 carries this year and will be splitting time with Mwelde Moore who’s got 8 carries.  Moore isn’t a true talent in the backfield and may see more time in passing situations.

Pittsburgh’s defense has been more consistent, they are in the top ten in total YPG, rushing YPG and Points Allowed.  Their pass defense is the weak link.  Look for Gates and Sproles to have decent days in the underneath passing game.

PICK: San Diego is a more balanced team right now and gets the road win.  The loss will likely knock Pittsburgh out of the AFC North race – especially if Baltimore wins.

Welcome to Part Two of the 1st annual 1818 Sports Flyers Player preview.  Part One covered the Forwards.  Part Two will cover the Defense and Goalies.

By Chris Campbell

Ray Emery

Defense

Matthew Carle #20 – Expect a career year statistically from Matt Carle, who seems likely to be Chris Pronger’s defense partner. He’s a Hobey Baker award winner who’s struggled to find his place in the league after signing an almost 14 million dollar extension with the Sharks in 06-07. I see a 30+ point season for the 25 year old d-man and a +/- rating close to the top of the league.

Braydon Coburn #5 – This is a guy who in my mind, really needs to prove himself this year or expect to be playing elsewhere. There are times when we see glimpses of the highly touted prospect drafted #8 overall by the Thrashers. There are however many times when he looks unsure and non-committal on the ice, reminding me of Joni Pitkanen. He’ll be a restricted free agent at the end of this year, and I really wouldn’t be surprised to see him moved before the deadline, since he still has big value on the trade market.

Randy Jones #6 – Jones was put on and cleared waivers at the end of the pre-season, a cap decision almost for sure. He happens to be not much better than (but considerably more expensive than) newly acquired Ole-Kristian Tollefsen. I would expect him to start the year with the Phantoms until being traded for draft picks to a team in need of a d-man. This is of course barring an early injury on the blue line, in which case, we’ll see him back in the bigs. Right now he’s the #7 man on very a competitive roster.

Ryan Parent #77 – This should be the breakout year for the young blueliner who should see increased ice time if he stays healthy. He’ll most likely be the anchor of the Flyers 3rd defense pair, playing with Tollefsen or Danny Syvret, and his level of play will make it that much easier for the Flyers to move Coburn. I don’t see him racking up a ton of points, but he’ll be solid from start to finish. He’ll be a candidate for the Pelle Lindbergh trophy for the most improved player, but it will go to Claude Giroux.

Chris Pronger #20 – Like most Flyers fans, I was simultaneously ecstatic and shocked when we acquired Pronger on draft day. Ecstatic because he’s one of the top five blueliners in the league: a big, physical defenseman who brings success and leadership with him everywhere he goes. I was shocked at what we gave up for him. Lupul and Sbisa I could have handled. Two first-rounders I could have handled. But Lupul, Sbisa AND two first round picks? I was really surprised. After some time though, the idea settled in and I have come to love the move. First, players of his caliber (especially d-men) don’t come on the market that often. Second, he’s exactly what the team has needed since the departure of Jason Smith and Derrian Hatcher. He’s big, nasty, and makes the opposition think twice before crossing our blue line. He’s also not afraid to punish people standing in the crease taking 2nd and 3rd whacks at loose pucks, a big problem for the Flyers least year, especially in the playoffs. I view the Pronger deal as a shot across the bough of the Penguins, letting Crosby and Malkin know that there will be a price to be paid for poking around the net, standing around in the corner, or any of the other cuteness that team like to engage in. Another benefit to having a guy like Pronger on the roster is that he takes a lot of the burden off of the beleaguered Kimmo Timonen. Look for Pronger, who has a knack of getting hard, low shots from the point through traffic to put up 50+ points, more than half of those on the power play.

Danny Syvret #26 – A fast moving defenseman, his stock has risen due to his strong pre-season play and his low price tag. I have him as #8 on the depth chart right now, but would move up in the event the team is able to move Randy Jones. He’s got a scoring touch, having out up 57 points in 76 games with the Phantoms last year. The jury is still out as to weather he can play at the NHL level, and he will most likely have limited chances to prove it this year. Expect him to spend most of the year in Adirondack.

Kimmo Timonen #44 – Kimmo has spent a lot of the last couple years playing out of his comfort zone, which is a fast moving, rush-leading d-man. With Pronger eating up time on the PK as well as against the top lines of other teams, Timonen will be able to re-focus on the offensive aspect of his game and have a career year, putting up around 70 points and being a finalist for the Norris trophy, an honor long overdue.

Ole-Kristian Tollefsen #55 – The big Norwegian will nicely fill in as the 6th defenseman and should start the year partnered with Ryan Parent. He’s big, physical guy, not terribly mobile and without much of a shot from the point. His ice time should be pretty limited and he could be up and down between the Flyers and Phantoms depending on the play of guys like Danny Syvret and prospects Kevin Marshall and Michael Ratchuck.

Goalies

Brian Boucher #33 – Back for his third tour of duty with the Flyers, I think at this point we all know what we can expect from Boosh. He has the ability to make spectacular saves, but his reflexes and positioning were always a bit shaky. He’s a good short-term insurance policy should the Rat Emery experiment collapse, but is not going to carry anybody down the stretch or to the Stanley Cup. The weird thing about Boosh is that he does have it in him to be spectacular at times, setting the modern NHL record with a five and a half game shutout streak when he played in Phoenix. I don’t think we should expect anything along those lines.

Ray Emery #29 – This is certainly the biggest question mark at the start of the season. Will Emery be the spectacular and aggressive goaltender who led the Senators to the Stanley Cup final in 2007 (losing to Chris Pronger’s Anaheim Ducks)? Or will he be the inconsistent, irresponsible, and flaky head case who was run out of the NHL in 2008? He’s looked sharp toward the end of the pre-season and handled himself well with the press and fans, but this is just the pre-season. Flyer fans are already unsure about the move itself, and if the wheels start to come off mid-season will he be able to stand the scrutiny that comes with playing in this town. The thing with Emery this season is that if the team in front of him plays the way they should, he won’t have to be spectacular, just solid. Where he will need to be raise his level of play is in the playoffs. If I had to make a prediction right now (which I do, since it’s the whole point of this column) I would say he has a good regular season posting 30+ wins, but has a below-average playoff and is playing somewhere else next year. I think the Emery experiment will go down neither as a failure or a success, just another big “meh” in the history of our goaltending “mehs”.

Welcome to the 1st annual 1818 Sports Flyers Preview.  This is the first of a two part series.  Part One will cover the Forwards, Part Two will cover Defense and Goalies.  Enjoy.

By Chris Campbell

Forwards

Arron Asham #45 – Gritty Player with good hands when he gets some open ice and time to maneuver. If the Flyers are on or below the bubble close to the trade deadline, I would expect Asham to finish the season elsewhere. It looks like he will start the season on a line with Claude Giroux, who could make me a passable NHL’er. Either way, he’s never had more than 25 points in his 10 NHL seasons and there’s no reason to think he’ll be much above or below that mark.

Blair Betts #11 – Looking to make the team off of a tryout invitation, Betts has surprised the team and Flyers fans with his solid 2 way play. His faceoff skill and defensive prowess make him an ideal candidate to take pressure off of Mike Richards on the penalty kill. He will make the team and provided they can agree on a contract, he’ll spend the season as the Flyers fourth line center, putting up 15-20 points and making life easier for our penalty killing unit.

Danny Briere #48 – Well, what can you say about Danny’s time in the Orange and Black? Plagued by injuries and defensively lacking, he has resided on the long list of free agent disappointments to increase jersey sales and decrease payroll on Broad Street. I always though Danny was a victim of unrealistic expectations anyhow, since his career high goal total is only 32 from the 95 point year he had in Buffalo in 06-07. He looks healthy, and has a better defense behind him than he’s ever had. I think he plays 75 games, ending with around 25 goals and around 50 assists for his best season as a Flyer.

Dan Carcillo #13 – Tough guy with a bad temper who referees watch like a hawk. He will either be moved to another team or sent to the AHL by December to make room for a younger, less likely to kill-a-guy player. One of the first tough guys in team history to not be embraced by Flyers fans, most likely because we all still miss Scottie Upshall. Not Carcillo’s fault; but either way it’s time for both parties to move on.

Jeff Carter #17 – Had the breakout season to end all breakout seasons last year, finishing 2^nd in goals to perennial freak of nature Alex Ovechkin. To paraphrase The Beatles I’ve got a feeling…that he won’t repeat his success. He’ll be solid but his decrease in scoring will be a hotly discussed issue in Flyerdom. That being said, he’ll be a solid 30 goal, 50 point man and a huge part of the team’s success; just not to the level he achieved last year.

Riley Cote #32 – Fights a lot but doesn’t win a lot. That being said, he won’t back down from anyone in the league. The toughness of Chris Pronger and Ian Laperriere makes Cote’s life a lot easier this year. I predict a significant drop in his PIMS and a solid defensive year from the 4^th line winger.

Simon Gagne #12 – Should the Flyers be struggling near the trade deadline, I think it’s safe to assume the longest tenured Flyer will be a Flyer no more. The recovered and resurgent Gagne opened a lot of eyes and got a lot of attention from other teams last year with 74 points in 79 games. He’s still a scoring threat and one of the best two-way players in the game, if he stays healthy he’s going to be too hard not to move should the team be any lower than 5^th in the conference come trade deadline time. Look for Gagne in Wild Green or Canadian Red if the team is faltering. If the Flyers perform to potential, expect a slight decrease in offensive numbers for Gagne, as his ice time is likely to be decreased.

Claude Giroux #28 – I don’t think there’s any limit to how good this guy can be. His only drawback is his size (5’11, 172 lbs), but it hasn’t shown any signs of slowing him down yet. He reminds me of Peter Forsberg with the way he sees the ice and makes plays from seemingly dead forechecks. He’ll start the year as the third line center but won’t be there for long. He’ll shuffle around lines for a bit, eventually ending up on the wing with Hartnell and Richards.  He’ll have an amazing year and finish 2^nd on the team in scoring with an 85-90 point season. The sky’s the limit for this guy, and I have no trouble imagining him in contention for the Art Ross trophy within the next 3 years. I cannot stress it enough, this kid is fantastic.

Scott Hartnell #19 – He’ll need to pick up some of the net-crashing power forward slack left by Knuble’s departure and I think he’ll be up to the task. He smashed his career high totals with 30 goals and 30 assists last year, and I expect him to exceed that this year. Look for a fewer goals (25 or so) but a jump in his assist total. If he winds up playing with Richards and Giroux he’ll be one third of one of the best lines in hockey.

Ian Laperriere #14 – The man they call Lappy is a born Flyer. Not brought here for his offensive prowess, he’ll kill penalties, win battles in the corners, protect our star players and irritate the other team to no end. Overshadowed by the acquisition of Ray Emery and Chris Pronger, I think Laperriere’s signing is one of the best off-season moves the Flyers have made in a long time. A hard nosed-veteran who hates to lose and makes the other team fight for every inch of ice? Gotta love it.

Darrol Powe #36 – Good two-way forward who should see more ice time this year. He’ll be a top nine forward and get a good bit of time on the PK provided he can improve on his faceoff percentage from last year. I wouldn’t be surprised to see 15 goals from the Princeton University product.

Mika Pyorala #27 – He put up 43 points in 55 games playing for Timra in the Swedish Elite League last year, and definitely has the hands of a playmaker. The Flyers roster is crowded, but his solid passing and speed should see him playing on opening night. I think it’s unlikely though that’ll he’ll play more than a dozen or so games with the big club this year, as he looks to me to need some more seasoning as a pro; at least by North American standards.

Mike Richards #18 – The Flyers Captain has proven himself to be an elite two-way player in the league and in the opinion of many was robbed of the Selke trophy last year. That being said, his leadership came into question at the end of last season with what seemed to be a flippant attitude toward a couple of key losses, as well as some less-than flattering comments about team management. The arrival of Pronger and Laperriere will right that ship in a hurry, and I expect a dynamite year from the young superstar. I fully expect him to lead the team in goals (40+) and become the Flyers’ first 100 point man since Eric Lindros in 95-96. He’ll also bring home his third consecutive Bobby Clarke trophy as team MVP.

James vanRiemsdyk #21 – With the exception of Ray Emery, there is no bigger question mark/ cause for concern than the future of James vanReimsdyk. The 2^nd overall pick in the 2007 draft looks on pace to make his looooong-awaited NHL debut this season with a strong pre-season. Flyers fans had to sit and watch while we lost out on the #1 overall pick that year, despite having been the worst team in the league. We’ve had to watch Patrick Kane develop into an elite player, and along with Jonathan Towes, help to turn around a Blackhawks franchise that was about as popular as meningitis. All the while, JVR stayed at the University of New Hampshire, causing many to question his desire to play the game at a professional level. After a shaky late-season stint with the Phantoms last year, he seems poised to make the team and finally answer the questions swirling around him. I think expectations need to be kept in check for JVR this year. He’s a big kid with a great shot and he seems able to put it on net from anywhere on the ice. That being said, ice time will be at a premium this year and JVR might spend a good amount of time trying to make lemonade out of lemons. I would consider him a success if he were to hit the 15 goal, 35 point mark in his debut campaign. Anything short of that will have him dangled as trade bait. He shortened his leash by taking his time, and now it’s up to him to shine with whatever role he’s given and prove to the team and the league that he was worthy of his high draft position. I think he will.