1818 Sports

By Chris McCarry

Typically I’ll do 4 games plus the Eagles game.  Since the Birds are on a Bye, you just get the other 4 games.

There are four games this weekend that are going to go a long way towards thinning the herd of early season hype.  I’ve looked these over and present to you what are most certainly the most sure-fire, stone-cold-picks in all of football.

New York Jets @ New Orleans Saints (NO by 3)

This is the single sporting event on the planet that has been hyped-up anywhere near as much as Favre’s Monday night fiasco with the Packers.  And for good reason…

I think the Saints might be the best team in football right now.  They did allow 27 points to the Lions in week one (a 45-27 win), but they have thoroughly trounced the Eagles and Bills in the succeeding weeks, two fairly decent teams.  The questions surrounding New Orleans have been about their rushing game and their defense.

Well, they rank 2nd in Rush YPG (170) and 10th in Opponents YPG (245).  And I actually think that yards allowed number is as high as it is because they jump out to a big leads and then opposing offenses have to sling the ball all over the field just to keep up.

As far as the Jets go, I think they are markedly better than last year.  Rex Ryan has instilled an all-new mentality in that locker room and brought the Ryan brand of defense with him from Baltimore.

The Jets rank in the top 10 in all the meaningful team defense categories.  They have held New England, Houston and Tennessee to just 256 YPG so far this season.  Those three teams are under achieving to this point in 2009 but the Pats and Texans were the 5th and 3rd best offenses in ’08.

This game is the first real test that New Orleans’ offense will face and New York’s defense will face.

PICK: New Orleans holds serve at home.  They’ll cover the line as well.

Baltimore Ravens @ New England Patriots (BAL by 1)

New England has been a bit of an enigma so far this year.  Tom Brady at times hasn’t looked like the superman we all make him out to be but overall I don’t think missing last season affected him too much.  He threw for 378 yards in the first game of the season @ Buffalo.

The team looked out of sync against the Jets in week 2.  They were held to just nine points for the first time since 2006 when the Broncos held them to seven in week 3.  This is going to be a tough matchup for New England but that’s why they have Brady and Bellichek.
Keep an eye on New England’s underrated, star-less defense.  They are ranked higher than Baltimore in many statistical categories.

Baltimore is considered the best team in football right now.  And they might be, this game can be a big part of the argument for or against that claim.

They’re the second best offense in the NFL in both Yards Per Game and Points Per Game (Second to New Orleans that is).  Flacco has emerged as more than just a “game-manager,” he’s got he 5th best passer rating in the league (101.4, Drew Brees is 1st).  Joe’s also 4th in league in touchdowns (6, only 2 INT) and 7th in YPG (280).

On top of that, his O-line is keeping him clean, Flacco’s only been sacked 3 times in 3 games.  Only 5 starting quarterbacks are cleaner than that (Brady, Eli, Peyton, Ryan and Leftwich).

And let’s not forget that rushing game.  Willis McGahee is 7th in the league in yards/carry (5.9) and leads the NFL in touchdowns with 5.  Rookie Ray Rice isn’t far behind with 5.1 YPC and a touchdown.  He’s also second on the team with 11 receptions, expect him to pick up his first receiving TD today.

PICK: Baltimore’s defense holds up against Brady and Co. and they pick up a BIG road win.  It’ll be close, but not that close, Baltimore covers the spread.

Dallas Cowboys @ Denver Broncos (EVEN)

I’m not surprised to see the line even for this game.  I don’t think anybody has any idea what to make of these two teams.  Dallas has got a ton of talent and more pressure to succeed than the first black president does.  And Denver…well, they run their Pro-Bowl QB (who honestly, acted like a bit of a 6-year-old) out of town and now their Pro-Bowl WR (who honestly, acted like a bit of a 3-year-old) wants out too.  I feel simultaneous empathy and disdain for both Tony Romo and Josh McDaniels.  They have quite possibly two of the toughest jobs in sports, yet there isn’t a single likeable, confidence-inspiring trait between them.

Somehow, out of nowhere, the Broncos have the best defense in the NFL.  And not by a little, it’s indisputable…except for the fact that they’ve played three of the worst teams in the league (CLE, CIN, OAK).

Oakland and Cleveland are battling it out for last place in total offense while Cinci sits in 24th.

Denver is actually too mediocre offensively to even quote stats.

And that brings me to the Cowboys.  (SPOILER: I’m going to pick the Broncos in this game simply for my hatred of the Cowboys organization).

The ‘Boys are 26th defensively in YPG and 17th in PPG.  This is an intensely talented unit, 26th in the league in opponents’ YPG is much too low.

Dallas’ strength is their running game.  Barber and Jones rushed the Cowboys to 193 YPG through 3 weeks.  The big question mark for today surrounds injuries to the aforementioned backs.  Barber will play today after resting a strained quad and Jones is out with a bad knee.  Tashard Choice could possibly start today if Barber isn’t good to go.

Tony Romo’s performance has been about as exciting as watching someone do your taxes.  He’s been OK at best, rolling into Mile High with an 85.2 QB Rating, 4 TD and 3 INT.  Whoop.

PICK: I’d like to push on this one, but I’m going to pick Denver.  They’re at home and I think the idea shoving a 4-0 record down everyone’s throat will motivate them just enough.

San Diego Chargers @ Pittsburgh Steelers (EVEN)

After two straight road loses, Pittsburgh hosts the Chargers, and tries to avoid their first 3-game losing streak since ’06.

It’s going to be cold and wet in Pittsburgh today, both teams are going to have to run the ball effectively to be successful.  That’s easier said than done on both sidelines.

LaDainian Tomlinson is listed as probable with an ankle injury.  Even if he’s on the field, how much will he contribute?  Confounding that problem is Darren Sproles anemic production so far this year.  The Chargers are the 2nd worst rushing team in the NFL – and that’s when both of their RB’s were healthy.

Another problem with San Diego has been their toughness.  They got pushed around a bit in their first two games, but got more physical against the Dolphins last week.  They’ll need to carry that into Pittsburgh today.

Phillip Rivers is sporting a pretty poor QB rating but he’s completing 67% of his passes and averaging 330 YPG.  Expect San Diego to attack the Steelers Palomalu-less secondary.

Pittsburgh has been a mystery this year.  Coming off a Super Bowl win they have not been able to get anything going on the ground. And their O-Line has struggled to protect Big Ben as well, allowing Roethlisberger to be sacked 7 times already this year.

Willie Parker is doubtful, dropping the rushing load on Rashard Mendnhall, who lost offensive playing time last week due to missed assignments.  He’s only gotten 7 carries this year and will be splitting time with Mwelde Moore who’s got 8 carries.  Moore isn’t a true talent in the backfield and may see more time in passing situations.

Pittsburgh’s defense has been more consistent, they are in the top ten in total YPG, rushing YPG and Points Allowed.  Their pass defense is the weak link.  Look for Gates and Sproles to have decent days in the underneath passing game.

PICK: San Diego is a more balanced team right now and gets the road win.  The loss will likely knock Pittsburgh out of the AFC North race – especially if Baltimore wins.